October 2022 - Latest Market Update

Is Inflation Impacting Real Estate?

The Bank of Canada has sent a clear message to Canadians as it executes the most aggressive round of tightening in the Country’s history and increases the bank rate by 50 basis point, it’s sixth increase this year.   A recession here and around the world seems inevitable as borrowing rates reach levels not seen in decades.  A 5-year fixed rate mortgage is now reaching over 6% and variable rates are reaching above 5%.  Private lending rates have also increased, but at a more modest pace.  

The Canadian Real Estate market is also feeling the impact with increased listings and a significant reduction is sales.  Prices have begun to soften, more so in some areas and most homes are selling under the list price.   Real Estate developers have also begun to delay and/or cancel projects.  Governments are not helping, and they continue to be a huge part of the inflation problem.   As the Country enters a recession, Government budgets will become strained, especially in BC where a huge percentage of the Government’s revenue comes from taxes on Real Estate. 

That being said, there are some reasons to be optimistic.  Rental rates have increased significantly and is allowing many property owners to meet their increased expenses.  Metro Vancouver’s rents are some of the highest in Canada and it’s allowing many investors from having to sell their property.

The Bank of Canada’s tightening is beginning to work, and the inflation rate has already slowed and is expected to fall further over the next few months.  This should provide some relief of further rate increases and possibly allowing the Bank of Canada to start easing monetary policy next Spring. 

If your mortgage is up for renewal try to avoid locking-in to a fixed rate beyond 3-5 years.  Variable rates are still great options for some borrowers, but caution to the Bank/lender you consider.  Some mortgage lenders will increase the payment with the increase in rates, but do not lower payment when the rates begin to fall.  Check with your lender before making decisions. 

Minimize borrowings as much as possible.  It may be better to take some equity out of your home rather than carrying balances on credit cards.  Many private lenders are sitting on a huge pile of cash and are eager to lend out the money. 

If you have a pre-sale purchase completing soon and the bank said no, don’t stress.  There are plenty of options to help get the deal completed.  

Did you know: In Scotland, homeowners have been known to paint their front door red when they pay off their mortgage. 

September 2022 - Latest Market Update

Storm Clouds

I don’t think anyone will be surprised to hear that mortgage rates have more than doubled over the past year and are predicted to rise further.  The next Bank of Canada meeting is on October 26th, and it’s expected to increase the rate by another 75 basis points.  The impact of higher rates is significant and monthly payments can be increased as much as 40% compared to last year and this will be higher in a few months.     

• September 2021:  $100,000 @ 2.60% with 30-year amortization = $399 per month

• September 2022:  $100,000 @ 5.44% with 30-year amortization = $560 per month

The bigger impact is on the qualifying rate lenders use for mortgage financing which has reached over 7%.  This is making it very difficult to qualify for a prime rate financing.  At the end of August, the benchmark price of a condo in Greater Vancouver was $740,000 and $1,954,000 for a detached home. 

To qualify for a prime rate mortgage at these benchmark prices with a 20% down payment:

• For condo you need income of at least: $192,300.

• For a detached home you need income of at least: $452,000.  

Of course, these high rates are having an impact on the Real Estate market.  Sales have been falling steadily since the Spring and prices across the Country are starting to fall.   Some areas have been impacted worse than others, but it may be only a matter of time before we see prices fall everywhere. 

Will the increases in rates start reducing the rate of inflation?  Eventually the rate increases will do the job to tame inflation, but the challenge is with the timing.  Our Governments of all levels continue to fuel inflation with money printing policies.  I don’t think any economist would feel that a deep recession isn’t on the horizon for Canada and the world. It is usually the recession that will cause inflation to fall.    

Another huge issue we are facing is housing affordability.  The solution for housing affordability was determined to be to increase the supply of housing.  The rising costs of construction of new homes has resulted in many developers and builders to cancel and/or pause projects throughout the Country.  As our population continues to grow; this will cause a supply problem in meeting the demands for housing putting upward pressure on prices.  

With that being said, I recommend anyone looking to make a home purchase consider doing so this winter and take advantage of a softer market.   Bottom line: the demand for housing should continue to accelerate, so whether you are a buyer or renter; expect to pay more.   

July 2022 - Latest Market Update

It’s All About Inflation

Everyone at this point has heard about the rising costs of goods and services including the rise in mortgage and interest rates.   And it’s just not a Canada thing.  We have not been threatened by inflation in many decades, and for many young adults, this is all a new world.   Governments have been obsessed with controlling inflation because it can be very destructive.  

Mortgage rates have nearly doubled since last year.  This is an alarming increase in such a short period of time.   It’s very hard to predict what the lending environment will be next year or five years from now, but this inflationary pressure may stay around longer than we hope.     

Everyone’s situation is different and there is no one answer for everyone. Here are some of my recommendations:

Mortgage lending:

• Consider the mortgage features as much as the rate.  Flexibility to stagger terms, pre-payment privileges and other such features like convertibility options become very important. 

• Consider other fixed terms rather than the popular 5-year term.

• Take advantage of b-weekly payments and other pre-payment privileges.  Little things can make a huge difference in paying down your balance. 

• Consider mainstream lenders such as a major Financial Institution.  Often, they are in a better position to help clients when needed. 

• Do not carry credit card or expensive debt.  Convert these debts into your mortgage now while home prices are high and before it becomes harder to qualify. 

Real Estate:

• If possible, delay listing your home to sell.  Sales have dropped significantly over the past few months and prices, as much as they lag; have already begun to soften.  

• If you must list your home for sale do so with a solid plan and strategy and make sure it’s followed. Consider what other homes you may be competing with in your neighborhood.

• A great visual appearance has always been important, but it’s even more so now.  And not just inside of the home.  The outside appearance your home is the first impression for a buyer when they visit. 

• Buyers should take advantage of softening conditions and jump into the market.  When the market softens, it’s common to believe it’s going to soften forever but history tells us differently. 

• Offers no longer need to be ‘condition free’ and buyers can spend more time on due diligence and satisfying their purchasing decision.  Remember, don’t wait to buy real estate, but buy and wait.  

Many households will be challenged during these Inflationary periods. 

“Control your expenses and prioritize improving your savings.  Have confidence in our Real Estate market but be cautious.”

April 2022 - Latest Market Updates

It’s All About Inflation

Are the days of cheap money and deflation over? Interest rates continue to rise and are much higher than they were this time last year. Canada and many other countries are experiencing a concerning inflation trend. Housing, food, gas and much more have been rising steady and in some cases are becoming a real concern. At the last measure the inflation rate was at 5.7%; a rate not seen in 30 years.

Consumer debt has been recently reported at $2.8 trillion with 70% of this debt held as a mortgage. Increases in the interest rate not only increases the borrowing costs for many Canadians but can lead to changes in spending habits. I’ve seen reports showing that 75% and more of Canadians are spending less on such things as household items, dining out and buying less expensive groceries.

Decreased consumer spending can often curtail inflation, however; the inflation is being caused by such things we cannot control. (of course, this begs the question of why is the Bank of Canada increasing rates to try and control something they can’t?) Supply disruptions, employment behaviors and war are outside of our control and can all be very inflationary. Increases to interest rates (and taxes) will only add to these pressures.

Mortgage rates are surging higher.

I strongly recommend anyone considering a refinance to consider it now and not wait especially if you have other debts to consolidate. It may also be the time to consider converting a variable rate mortgage to a fixed rate. Mortgage rates are expected to rise significantly this year. The good news is this should reduce the impact of penalties charged by lenders to refinance or a full payout.

---

Special Announcement

It is with great pride and honor to announce two new alliances with two very successful professionals. 

Bill Parsons (Formally a REMAX hall of fame recipient) is one of the most successful and experienced realtors in BC.   Bill Parsons and I will be working together to help clients with their real estate goals.  I’ve known Parsons for almost twenty years and I’m confident that his forty-two years of experience and success will allow me to exceed clients’ expectations and continue to deliver great results. 

Rebecca Harrap (Mortgage Professional with Verico) is also one of the most knowledgeable and experienced mortgage brokers in Lower Mainland.  My alliance with Rebecca will allow me to continue to provide mortgage and financing solutions to clients.  Whether it’s accessing private financing or battling with the big banks, we now have better and more options for borrowers. 

---

The latest real estate stats are out and prices continue to climb higher ……click her for latest report: Download the March 2022 stats package.

The BC Government is now set to amend the Property Law Act to allow a ‘Cooling off’ period allowing buyers to backout of a purchase contract. Only a few details are known at this time but more on this will be available in the coming weeks. The new law may have unintended consequences that may affect all parties to a real estate transaction; however, it looks like more of an impact to sellers than buyers.

This new law may not do anything to increase inventory levels or stop the increase in housing prices, but there will be more to report on this as we move into the Spring market.

Fixed mortgage rates are much higher than they were just a year ago. Fixed rates have basically doubled from the lows of 2020. Currently 5-year fixed rates can be offered as low as 3.59% and as high as 3.89% depending on lender and product. Variable rate mortgages can be offered as low as 2%.

January 2022 - Latest Market Update

2022 Will Be The Year of UP

BC tax Assessments are out in the mail and are available online.   I think most homeowners will be quite surprised by the increase in their tax assessed values. Some homes have increased up to 35% over last year and most are seeing nothing less than double digit increases.  

Metro Vancouver’s housing market remained very active again for the last month of 2021.  We are nearing record low levels of housing supply, and this is pushing prices way up.  It’s not just pent-up demand and low inventory causing prices to rise, but the cost of construction materials and labour have also risen substantially.     

Inflation is expected to remain elevated for the first half of 2022 and the recent spike in COVID cases and severe weather will likely cause inflation to continue its upward trend.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 2,688 in December 2021, a 13% decrease from the same month last year and decreased 22% from November 2021.  

Last month’s sales were 33% above the 10-year December’s sales average.

The number of homes available for sale last month decreased 19% compared to the same period last year and dropped almost 51% from November 2021. 

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver increased 17% from same period last year and is currently $1,230,200.

The benchmark price for a detached home increased 22% from same period last year and is $1,910,200, up 2% from November 2021.   

The benchmark price for apartments increased 13% from same period last year and is $761,800 up modestly from November 2021.    

The benchmark price for attached homes increased 22% from same period last year and is $1,004,900, up modestly from November 2021.    

Fixed mortgage rates are much higher than they were just a year ago. Fixed rates are up at least 50% from last year.It is expected that fixed mortgage rates will rise this year; how much; hard to say, but I believe we may see most terms in the 3% range.  The biggest move may be with Variable rate mortgages. The Prime rate is not expected to remain at its historical low level and should increase by at least 30% this year.

Currently 5-year fixed rates can be offered as low as 2.59% and as high as 2.89% depending on lender and product.  Variable rate mortgages can be offered as low as 1.35%.